After a midterm

Stocks rose in the 12 months after every US midterm election since 1950. 19 out of 19.

1. A flat drawing of the US Capitol above nineteen green bars, one for each US midterm from 1950 to 2022, showing the S&P 500's change in the 12 months after election day. Every bar is above zero, from +1% in 1986 to +33% in 1954. A dashed amber bar for 2026 holds a question mark. Below the chart: the S&P 500 is Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla and the rest. Up after every midterm since 1950, median +15%.

2. The same 19 bars with three lit: 1954 +33%, 1994 +27% and 2006 +7%, the only midterms since 1950 where the president's party lost both the House and the Senate. Median +27%. The Senate flipped on 3 November 2026; the House was projected but not yet called by the AP.

3. Five bars lit: 1986 +1%, 2010 +4%, 2014 +5%, 2018 +12%, 2022 +15%, the years the president's party lost one chamber. Median +5%.

4. Eleven bars lit, the midterms where the president's party lost no chamber, from +6% in 1978 to +25% in 1990. Median +16%.

5. The catch: in 2002 the S&P 500 was down 7% three months after the midterm, in 2018 down 1%, and in 1986 it rose only 1% over 12 months. Nineteen elections is a small sample.

6. Question: will 2027 keep the streak? 19 for 19 since 1950. Choices: yes, no, too early.

Numbers as of 4 Nov 2026

Apple Amazon Google Microsoft Nvidia Tesla

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The full story

This year the Senate flipped, and the House is projected to flip too (the AP hasn't called it yet). Here is what history says, split by what happened to the president's party:

Lost both houses (1954, 1994, 2006): +33%, +27%, +7%
Lost one house (1986, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022): median +5%
Lost neither (11 midterms): median +16%

Measured on the S&P 500 from election day to 12 months later, price only.

The catch: 19 elections is a small sample, and every year has its own story. In 2002 and 2018 stocks fell over the first 3 months before rising. And 2026 comes with its own problems, from prices to the war in Iran.

Which way do you think 2027 goes?

Not investment advice.

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