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Nebius has signed about 16 years of its current sales. Microsoft, about 2. The small clouds sold furthest ahead.

Numbers as of 1 Oct 2026

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  1. Six green squares, each one's area showing how many years of current sales a cloud company has already signed in contracts. Nebius 16 years, CoreWeave 10, Oracle 8.6, Google Cloud 5.2, AWS 2.9, Microsoft 1.9. A small amber outline in each marks one year of sales.
  2. Nebius: 37.5 billion dollars signed and not yet delivered, against about 2.3 billion of sales a year. About 16 years. Who signed: Microsoft, 17.4 billion dollars; Meta, 15 billion across two deals.
  3. CoreWeave: 103.7 billion dollars signed, against about 10.3 billion of sales a year. About 10 years. Who signed: Meta, about 35 billion dollars across two deals; OpenAI, 22.4 billion across three.
  4. Oracle: 664 billion dollars signed, against about 77 billion of sales a year. About 8.6 years. Who signed: OpenAI, 300 billion dollars over five years, according to a press report.
  5. Google Cloud: 514 billion dollars signed, against about 99 billion of sales a year. About 5.2 years. Who signed: Anthropic, about 200 billion dollars over five years, according to a press report.
  6. AWS: about 496 billion dollars signed, against about 169 billion of sales a year. About 2.9 years. Who signed: OpenAI, 138 billion dollars; Anthropic, more than 100 billion over ten years.
  7. Microsoft: 678 billion dollars signed, the largest here, against about 360 billion of sales a year. About 1.9 years. Who signed: OpenAI, 250 billion dollars; Anthropic, 30 billion.
  8. The same piles in dollars: Microsoft 678 billion, Oracle 664 billion, Google Cloud 514 billion, CoreWeave 104 billion, Nebius 37.5 billion. First and last swap places. The same three names keep signing: OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta.
  9. Which order book would you trust? Logos of Nebius, CoreWeave and Oracle, plus Other. Below: sixteen years signed, safe or stretched? Follow Green Owl if you want more.

A backlog is contracts signed but not yet delivered. Divide it by a year of sales at today's pace and you get how far ahead a company has sold.

Backlog vs latest quarter's revenue × 4:

Nebius - $37.5bn vs ~$2.3bn a year. ~16 years. CoreWeave - $103.7bn vs ~$10.3bn. ~10 years. Oracle - $664bn vs ~$77bn. ~8.6 years. Google Cloud - $514bn vs ~$99bn. ~5.2 years. AWS - $496bn vs ~$169bn. ~2.9 years. Microsoft - $678bn vs ~$360bn. ~1.9 years.

Microsoft, Amazon and Google fund new data centers from cash their other businesses make (Oracle's free cash flow was −$5bn last quarter). The two neoclouds at the top mostly don't have that cushion: CoreWeave carries about $35bn of debt and lost $626m last quarter; Nebius plans $20–25bn of capex this year on $3–3.4bn of revenue. A backlog becomes money only once the data centers run.

Fast growth shrinks the ratio: at Nebius's $7–9bn year-end run-rate target it would be 4 to 5½ years. And CoreWeave's largest customer was 40% of its first-half revenue.

Microsoft's figure is business customers only; Amazon's is "primarily AWS". Quarters end 30 Jun 2026, Oracle's 31 Aug.

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Companies in this picture

AmazonAnthropicCoreWeaveGoogleMetaMicrosoftNebiusOpenAIOracle

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