Is this the big one?

Bad week or bear market? Where do you land?

Since 1971, the Nasdaq has fallen this far from a record 40 times.

• 27 stopped before −20%. The typical one was back at a record in 48 trading days.
• 13 became bear markets, meaning down 20% or more. The typical one took 303 trading days.
• One big down day added little: after one near a record, 18 of 35 cases hit −20% within a year, against 42% of all days near a record.
• 29 of the 38 falls with a full year of data since were higher a year later.

Friday was mostly tech. Intel fell 29% after a weak forecast. The S&P 500 is 3.1% below its record.

The catch: the count depends on the rule. This uses daily closes, price only. One count using monthly averages finds 7 bear markets, not 13. Start later than 1971 and the share runs from 20% to 33%. 40 falls is a small count, not odds.

Why it matters: the two kinds look alike early on. Only 6 of the 13 overlapped a recession.