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Health

Big Pharma's cliff

Five of these eight drugmakers face a U.S. exclusivity cliff on their biggest medicine before 2030.

Numbers as of 24 Aug 2026

The full story

  1. A timeline from 2025 to 2036 shows eight drugmakers' biggest medicines and when each loses U.S. patent exclusivity: Novartis/Entresto $8B in 2025, Pfizer/Eliquis $8B and Merck/Keytruda $32B both in 2028, J&J/Darzalex $14B and Roche/Ocrevus $9B in 2029, Novo Nordisk/Ozempic $18B in 2031, AbbVie/Skyri
  2. Novartis' Entresto lost U.S. patent exclusivity in the third quarter of 2025. Entresto's fourth-quarter 2025 sales fell 45% at constant currency. Despite that, Novartis' total full-year 2025 net sales grew 8% to $54.5 billion, and its stock hit an all-time high of $163.64 on 27 February 2026, after
  3. Eliquis makes up about 13% of Pfizer's total 2025 revenue of $62.6 billion. Eliquis' core patent expires in 2026, but a 2021 court ruling and a settlement with generic makers pushed real U.S. generic entry to April 2028, the same year as Merck's Keytruda. Eliquis' FY2025 global sales were $7.96 bill
  4. Keytruda makes up 49% of Merck's total 2025 revenue of $65.0 billion. Keytruda loses U.S. patent exclusivity in 2028. Keytruda's FY2025 global sales were $31.7 billion.
  5. Ozempic makes up about 41% of Novo Nordisk's total 2025 sales of $43.3 billion. Ozempic loses U.S. patent exclusivity in 2031. Ozempic's FY2025 global sales were DKK 127 billion.
  6. Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 pill Foundayo, orforglipron, was FDA-approved in April 2026, ten years before tirzepatide's 2036 patent cliff.
  7. Johnson & Johnson's Darzalex and Roche's Ocrevus both face U.S. patent cliffs in the same year, 2029.
  8. Which cliff worries you most? A row of the Pfizer, Merck, Novo Nordisk and Lilly logos. Below: Pfizer's and Merck's land first, in 2028. Follow Green Owl if you want more.

A patent cliff is the point where a blockbuster drug can face generic or biosimilar competition. It does not mean sales instantly go to zero. It means the moat gets much harder to defend.

This line uses each company's biggest medicine by FY2025 sales and the closest disclosed U.S. loss-of-exclusivity or core-patent date: Novartis/Entresto 2025; Pfizer/Eliquis 2026; Merck/Keytruda 2028; Johnson & Johnson/Darzalex 2029; Roche/Ocrevus 2029; Novo Nordisk/Ozempic 2031; AbbVie/Skyrizi 2033; Eli Lilly/tirzepatide 2036.

The green sales figures are FY2025 worldwide medicine sales, rounded to the nearest $1B. Companies report in different currencies, so Novartis, Roche and Novo Nordisk figures are converted to USD and rounded; tirzepatide combines Mounjaro and Zepbound. At roughly $38B against Lilly's FY2025 revenue, tirzepatide is about 60% of company sales.

Dates are not guarantees. Patent families can contain later claims, and litigation, regulatory exclusivity and settlements can move actual generic or biosimilar entry. The chart therefore shows the disclosed cliff date, not a sales forecast.

Sources: company FY2025 annual reports and product-sales disclosures, including Pfizer's 2025 Form 10-K (Eliquis global revenue $7.961B); company patent/exclusivity disclosures. Not financial advice.

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Companies in this picture

AbbVieJohnson & JohnsonEli LillyMerckNovo NordiskNovartisPfizerRoche

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